Key Takeaways
- The decision-making bottleneck is almost always information processing, not information collection.
- Irreversible decisions deserve more deliberation than reversible ones.
- The question is not what is the best decision but what is the best decision given the information I can have in the next 24 hours.
Saim Abbasi makes a lot of decisions every week across Iron Key Capital's portfolio, SA Media's operations, and his own advisory relationships. The volume of decisions would be unmanageable if each one required the same level of deliberation. The mental models he has developed for rapid good decision-making are the result of both formal study and repeated practical application.
The Reversibility Framework
The first filter Saim applies to any decision is the reversibility question: if this turns out to be wrong, how hard is it to undo? Decisions that are difficult or impossible to reverse, a significant equity grant, a major hire, a strategic direction change, deserve significantly more deliberation than decisions that are easily reversed, a pricing test, a content experiment, a small operational change.
The mistake most leaders make is applying the same deliberation level to all decisions. This either slows down reversible decisions that should be made quickly or rushes irreversible ones that deserve more care. The reversibility filter sorts the pile correctly.
The 24-Hour Information Horizon
The second framework is the 24-hour information horizon: what information is realistically available to me in the next 24 hours that would meaningfully change this decision? If the answer is "not much," waiting longer is unlikely to improve the decision. If specific information is coming in the next 24 hours that would materially affect the analysis, waiting for it is rational. If the information that would meaningfully help is months away, the decision needs to be made on what is currently available.
The Regret Minimization Test
For decisions with emotional weight, Saim uses a version of the regret minimization framework: in 10 years, will I regret not doing this more than I will regret doing it? This reframes the decision from current risk, which feels large, to long-term regret, which is often a cleaner guide. The things people regret most are almost always the things they did not do rather than the things they did and learned from.
"Most decisions are not as irreversible as they feel in the moment. Treating a reversible decision like an irreversible one is just delay with extra anxiety."